MEETING PURPOSE
Our investment team aim to meet every week to discuss the macro environment and how this could impact our current and future portfolio construction.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Core Thesis: The market is undergoing a structural shift away from US-centric assets, driven by geopolitical fragmentation and central bank gold buying.
- Key Indicators:
- Broadening Rally: Gains are spreading beyond the “Mag 7” to EM, commodities, and non-US equities.
- Gold as a “Fear Trade”: Central banks are buying gold, not selling, as a hedge against fiat currency debasement. EM central banks hold only 9% of reserves in gold vs. DM’s 20%, suggesting significant future buying potential.
- US Election Risk: The November election is a major binary event. A Trump defeat may lead to a pullback in US equities alongside a stronger dollar, whereas a victory could heighten geopolitical tensions globally.
- Risk Management Debate:
- Concern: The team’s low cash position (~1%) is a risk if the market correction is sharp and correlated across assets.
- Counterpoint: The current strategy is to ride the momentum and use technical indicators (e.g., trailing stops) to manage risk, as the long-term commodity/EM cycle is potentially just a start of a medium term structural commodity cycle.
TOPICS
Most of the Tuesday meeting was spent on reporting all flagship funds and model portfolio performance, current asset allocation per fund – for local and global funds & portfolios. We were well positioned to generate positive Alpha relative to absolute and most peer group benchmarks.
Next Steps
- Investment Committee:
- Conduct the monthly Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) meeting to finalize portfolio positioning for 2026 and beyond.
- Define risk management policies for parabolic assets using technical indicators (e.g., trailing stops).
- Sales Team:
- Provide feedback on the today’s feedback meeting format to improve its effectiveness.
The content of this article is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to any person. The opinions expressed are subject to change and are not to be interpreted as investment advice. You should consult an adviser who will be able to provide appropriate advice that is based on your specific needs and circumstances. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and given in good faith, but no representation is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness.3